By the start of 21st century, it was clear that Asia would be the next growth engine of the world. By that time, the western countries had done tremendous progress in developing infrastructure in the form of roads, ports, airports, modern transport systems etc. For various reasons, Asian region was lagging behind on the above counts and this resulted in big infrastructure projects boom in the region. Naturally, this served as a big trigger for metals consumption and this industry was on the fast growth track. China was the leader in infrastructure growth as well as in metals.
All this was quite smooth and growing till western world meltdown in 2009. The developed countries got a big jolt and even Asian countries which were thickly associated with the developed countries, had to suffer. This was the time when China and India along with countries like Russia, Brazil (commonly termed as BRIC countries) were seen as the only growing economies and many western world companies started migrating to these countries. By this time, Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region was also seen as a fast growing one and with the huge investing ability, infrastructure projects boom started in this region too.
Gradually, China’s pace slowed down, Russia and Brazil got entrapped into their internal issues and India remained the only country which had the capacity to sustain a relatively decent growth rate (Presently around 7.5 %). Also, oil price crash had a big negative effect on the infra projects in MENA region, especially in Saudi Arabia. The region is facing an acute problem of liquidity and many projects are put on hold. The metal consumption growth was also arrested due to this.
We must understand that China and most of the economies in MENA region are investment oriented which means that the government is pumping money for the development projects. On the other hand, India’s economic growth is fueled by the domestic consumption. Many will agree that such economies are more stable, less prone to global tremors and thus more sustainable !
For last few years, the industry has been witnessing stagnated demand coupled with overcapacity on a global level. This situation has been described as ‘Recession’ by almost all the experts and analysts. Now the perception seems to have changed and the situation is being termed as ‘New normal’ !
In line with the global situation, Indian metals industry too has been not doing well for the last few years. There were acute problems about the availability of critical raw materials like ore and coal. I must say that with the positive initiative from the government, most of these problems are either overcome or under control. Further, with the introduction of MIP, cheap imports will be restricted and pricing may improve a bit. All these factors have positively impacted Indian metals industry which can now look forward to comparatively better days in coming months.
Even if all this is true, there is a major hurdle still to overcome. The demand curve is not going up and this is suppressing the production levels and thus impacting badly on the bottomline. We all know that metals demand lies outside the metals industry and depends on overall economic activity. Yes, this year’s good monsoon has definitely contributed to raise the industry sentiment but the real boost will come when the government funded mega infrastructure projects start moving ahead. Mind well, capacity utilization of our industry has fallen in last year or so and the biggest reason is suppressed demand. Another important issue in our country is cost of power and finance. Needless to say that these inputs are of immense value for the metals production and are very costly in India. That makes our metals products less competitive in global markets.
If we analyze the demand profile, it is seen that the metals demand is concentrated mainly around big cities and the rural areas still have a very poor consumption. If the government, along with main producers launches a campaign, come out with new applications of metals in different facets of rural life, popularize them, then the metals consumption can go upwards. This will help the industry as well as the rural economy.
Overall, I feel the industry sentiment is slowly turning positive and some improvement in demand will provide the required push for the industry.
Middle East Foundry Summit’ organized by ‘Metalworld’ in Dubai was unique in many ways. It was first of its kind foundry event in the Middle East region and was attended by many top industry executives from UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, India, South Africa, United Kingdom, Germany etc. It surfaced and discussed many issues facing the foundry sector in that region.
Middle East is part of MENA region (Middle East & North Africa) and is one of the fast growing regions in the world. This was more true before 2008 global meltdown as this region suffered a big jolt at that time. Since 2010 or so, it started recovering steadily and the infra project count and the demand curve started climbing up. Everything seemed to be coming back on track till the region was banged down by oil price crash. Many infra projects were put on hold and numerous other projects from other industries were halted for want of liquidity. Now the oil prices seem to have stabilized a bit and industrial activity is gradually increasing.
As we all know, casting is a very basic engineering product and has applications in almost all industries. Middle East region is very much strategically located and can serve as a gateway to European markets. Further North African markets are also nearby. In India, the most important customer industry for foundry sector is automobile. So to say, the fortune of foundry sector largely depends on the performance of auto sector. This very important customer industry is lacking in the Middle East region. There is no major auto manufacturing or even assembling facility which would have supported a sustained growth of foundry sector in this region. Although, there are other few factors favouring a foundry unit in this region. First is ease of doing business. Once you complete the required paper work (which takes fewer days than most of the countries in the world), there is no outside interference to your business. Further, even if the labour is not cheap, their efficiency more than compensates this aspect.
Finally, with firming oil prices, gradual increase in economic activity, opening up of Iran, the future of foundry sector seems to be promising in the Middle East region !
Atlast, the rains have started in most of the parts in India and the monsoon is progressing as per the expectations. It’s a great relief not only to farmers but to the whole country as such.
Though agriculture contribution to the economy and GDP is not even 20%, livelihood of nearly 70% population depends on it. Thus, if the rains are good then naturally agro production increases and subsequently the purchasing power of majority of the population also increase. This gives a big boost to the economy wheel and indirectly supports the demand curve of many commodities including auto, appliances, equipments and also metals. Also, good monsoon means more demand for tractors and other agriculture equipment. Hope this monsoon helps the metals industry to regain its lost sentiment !
The metals industry not only in India but globally too is suffering since last few years. The demand stagnation in Eurozone is one of the major contributors to this slowdown. Last year there were some expectations that the EU demand curve will rise but nothing happened. Infact, now with the exit of Great Britain from EU, commonly referred as Brexit, the fluidity and uncertainty in the situation has increased. This move by UK has put a question mark on the fundamental concept of EU. It is said that there is a possibility of few other EU member countries going UK way. This, if happens, will further aggravate the situation and will be very bad for the regional as well as global economy.
Many countries in the Middle East region did get a big jolt during 2008 global meltdown but were climbing the recovery curve, slowly and steadily. The halted infra projects were slowly returning back on track. Metal industry too started forward planning to some extent. All these initiatives got a big setback with last year’s oil price crash. Slowly the system is getting reconciled to this new situation. Though all this is true, Middle East region still remains one of the most promising one especially for the metals industry. A lot of infra projects are sure to come up sooner or later which will consume huge quantity of metals in various forms including castings. The region can also act as a gateway to develop business with Europe. Rightly, many foundry entrepreneurs are considering setting up a foundry unit in this growing region.
Experts feel that if the oil prices stabilise at around 65 to 70 USD, the Middle East region’s economy will zoom in no time and it will benefit all the industries including the foundries in the region !!!
Today, India has clearly emerged as one of the few economic growth destinations in the world. Globally, most of the regions are either progressing marginally or struggling to survive. The demand seems to be stagnated and the mineral & metals industry is paying heavily for the overcapacity which they only have created in the past few years.
Though Indian economy is growing at a decent pace of more than 7% annually, it does have its share of problems. Indian markets too seem to have stagnated for a while. Export basket has reduced in size. Indian manufacturers have to fight with cheap imported goods in their own markets. Small and medium sector is struggling hard for the survival. This situation is prevailing in most of the industry verticals including metals sector.
As many may agree, not passing of land acquisition bill in the Indian parliament has become a big hindrance in the growth of big time manufacturing in India. If there are problems in securing the land itself, how can mega projects progress? In case of metals industry, we all very well know that such plant spreads over hundreds of acres and unless such big pieces are made available, metals industry cannot go ahead with Greenfield expansion projects. Many experts feel that even if the country’s economy grows at a decent speed, even if the metals consumption grows, Indian mills will not be able to grab this opportunity with their limited production capacity and the country will have to heavily depend on imports.
But friends, not everything is bad for Indian metals sector. Defense and Railways are emerging as the big time customers for this industry. Also, with many countries interested in investing in Indian infrastructure projects, the metal demand curve is likely to get a strong support in coming months. Finally, as per the predictions, this year’s monsoon is going to be good. Taking into consideration all these factors, I feel that minerals & metals industry will start feeling better after October 2016. As such fiscal 2016-17 should be better than 2015-16!
Global demand stagnation in metal industry is the biggest problem today. Almost all regions are facing this issue and many international trade bodies, forums are trying to find the solution to this issue. Let’s look at different regions !
European demand has been going down since last few years. It is believed that this year may be slightly better than the last one but still capacity utilization in Eurozone remains quite low. Also, the infrastructure utilization index in this region is quite low. This means that there is not much need to develop new infrastructure. As regards the US economy, though it is growing marginally, the infrastructure utilization index is not very high. Thus one cannot expect steep rise in metals consumption in infrastructure projects.
In the Middle East, due to the warfare in the past, a lot of countries are hungry for infrastructure development but the recent blow came from oil price crash. Many infrastructure projects are now put on hold for lack of finance availability. Of late, the oil prices have shown a marginal upward movement and if it continues and oil prices cross US$ 60 / barrel mark, the situation can start improving gradually.
In India the main reason for demand stagnation is slowing down of infrastructure development process. Many projects are still on the drawing board are yet to kick start. Everybody is hoping and wishing that they will start soon and give a big boost to metals demand in the country. Experts feel that the visible change will start happening only by the end of 2016. It is believed that this year’s monsoon will be good. In India, monsoon plays a vital role in speeding up the economic wheel. If Indian economy continues to grow by around 7%, it will give a big support to metal demand curve and the things will start falling in place. Also, the infrastructure utilization index in India is more than 100% which indicate a big requirement and opportunity for infrastructure development.
Making predictions in such a fluid and dynamic global situation is foolishness but if I am compelled to, then I would rather believe in ‘Indian Growth Story’ !
Before 2009, Middle East & North Africa (MENA) was seen as one of the fastest growing regions in terms of metal consumption, thanks to the infrastructure development and construction activity all over. During 2009 meltdown, the regional economy got a jolt and the infrastructure development activity drastically reduced followed by reduction in metal consumption. Many mills and the trading houses could not sustain this sudden price fall and few even had to close down permanently. It is always seen that the falls are sudden and the growth is gradual. The industry started recovering and now 5-6 years later, the region was gradually stabilizing in terms of industrial activity, infrastructure projects and the metal consumption is also rising slowly. Then came the oil price crash and it has reduced the pace of the economy. Suddenly, there is liquidity crunch in the market and many infrastructure as well as steel projects, which were in expansion mode, had to halt their plans. Experts feel that the situation will start changing for better from the second half of the current year and 2017 will be definitely a better year than 2016. As such the region still offers tremendous opportunities on a long term basis.
Middle East region and India have very friendly logistic between them. In fact, UAE is the biggest export destination for Indian goods. Naturally, there is a tremendous opportunity for trade in metals sector. India also supplies plant equipment, instrumentation, technical manpower and inputs like ferro alloys, coal, refractories, etc. Indian technical and managerial manpower is making a fantastic contribution to the economic growth of many Middle East countries. Further, we all know that in the last few years, India has emerged as one of the few growing economies in the world. Its economy is expected to grow by more than 7 % in the current fiscal and according to the analysts, will continue to grow further in coming years. This growing Indian economy can be a big opportunity to Middle East metal business houses to invest and expand. Many Arab investors would like to participate in growing Indian economy.
It is generally felt that the trade between India and MENA region will expand in coming years and both the economies will support each other in the growth path !